A Nation at the Crossroads

Turkey occupies a unique geopolitical position — literally and figuratively. Straddling Europe and Asia, it is a founding member of NATO, a candidate for EU membership (albeit a stalled one), a regional power in the Middle East and the Black Sea, and an increasingly assertive independent actor on the world stage. Understanding Turkish foreign policy requires appreciating this multi-dimensional balancing act.

Turkey and NATO: A Complicated Alliance

Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952 and hosts the alliance's second-largest standing army. Yet Ankara has repeatedly tested the limits of alliance solidarity:

  • The S-400 controversy: Turkey's 2019 purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defence system led to its suspension from the F-35 fighter jet programme and sanctions threats from the United States.
  • Blocking enlargement: Turkey delayed the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, extracting concessions related to Kurdish militant groups and arms exports before ultimately approving both bids.
  • Mediation roles: Turkey has positioned itself as a mediator — most notably brokering the 2022 grain corridor deal between Russia and Ukraine — demonstrating that its independent stance can produce tangible results.

For NATO, Turkey is both indispensable and unpredictable. Its control of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits under the Montreux Convention gives it enormous strategic leverage, particularly in any Black Sea crisis.

Turkey–Russia Relations

Despite being on opposing sides in conflicts in Syria and Libya, Turkey and Russia maintain a pragmatic relationship built on energy dependence, trade, and tourism. TürkStream, a major natural gas pipeline, runs from Russia directly to Turkey, making energy ties a constant moderating factor in the bilateral relationship. At the same time, Turkey has supplied Ukraine with Bayraktar drones and strongly opposed Russia's annexation of Crimea.

The Middle East Dimension

Turkey's involvement in the Middle East has intensified over the past decade. Key dynamics include:

  • Syria: Turkey has conducted multiple military operations in northern Syria targeting Kurdish YPG forces, which Ankara designates as a terrorist organisation linked to the PKK.
  • Libya: A military cooperation agreement with the Tripoli-based government extended Turkish influence into the Mediterranean and North Africa.
  • Gulf relations: After years of tension following the 2017 Qatar blockade, Turkey has successfully rebuilt ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE through high-level diplomatic visits and trade agreements.
  • Israel–Gaza conflict: Turkey's position has been sharply critical of Israeli military operations in Gaza, leading to a suspension of trade and a significant deterioration in bilateral relations.

Why Turkey's Foreign Policy Defies Labels

Western analysts sometimes struggle to categorize Turkey — is it drifting East, or simply demanding greater respect from its traditional Western partners? The reality is more nuanced. Turkey's leadership under President Erdoğan has consistently pursued a doctrine of "strategic autonomy," seeking maximum leverage by refusing to be fully captured by any single alliance structure.

This approach brings both benefits (independence, influence, negotiating power) and costs (tension with allies, investor uncertainty, diplomatic isolation on some issues). As Turkey heads into the second half of the 2020s, its foreign policy choices will remain among the most consequential in the broader region.